Written by: Reid Wilson
So this is what it’s like to live in Iowa. For a week leading up to Tuesday’s Republican presidential caucuses, North Dakota voters have the opportunity to see most of the candidates left in the race as the state takes its turn on the main stage.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Rep. Ron Paul have all swung through North Dakota in recent days, with more stops planned. That North Dakota matters at all is a sign of the ongoing tumult in the Republican field; in a race marked by upheaval, in which each subsequent front-runner has seemed to last only moments at the head of the pack, none of the remaining candidates have been able to deliver a knock-out blow that would secure the nomination.
“There’s actually been quite a bit of interest in North Dakota this time instead of last time,” said Curly Haugland, a Bismarck businessman who serves as one of the state’s representatives to the Republican National Committee. “To see North Dakota getting attention for a little caucus event is really kind of unheard of because usually (the nomination) is decided by the time we get around to it.”
But North Dakota doesn’t get the stage all to itself on Tuesday. Nine other states will hold contests that day, including Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee and Georgia, all states rich with the delegates Republican candidates need to win the nomination.
North Dakota is seen as one of the last opportunities for Santorum or Gingrich, the two candidates who have courted social conservatives, to block Romney’s long, hard slog toward the nomination. Romney has done best in states that hold primaries, open contests in which voters cast ballots throughout the day at a polling place, which typically means higher voter turnout. Santorum, by contrast, has done better in states that hold caucuses, events that start at a specific time and typically attract only the most ardent party activists.
That’s the case in North Dakota, where voters will gather at more than 60 locations across the state. Caucuses will open at 5:30 p.m., and voters will be able to cast ballots after hearing from representatives of each campaign committee.
“North Dakota is eminently winnable for Rick Santorum. As part of the Super Tuesday elections where 10 states are participating in Republican primaries and caucuses it is a state that can dramatically help shape the narrative of the campaign,” said Stuart Roy, a Washington-based Republican strategist who advises a so-called super PAC, the Red White and Blue Fund, that backs Santorum.
Santorum is the only candidate who has spent any money trying to win the state. His campaign has purchased about $7,600 in cable television advertising, according to a Republican source who watches the advertising market. And Red White and Blue Fund, the super PAC, has spent another $2,000 on mail that’s been sent to likely caucus-goers, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
It’s an indication that Santorum needs a win. After taking victories in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota in early February, Santorum emerged as the most promising candidate for those looking for a Romney alternative. But in a race driven by 20 separate, nationally-televised debates, Santorum turned in a lackluster performance in the candidates’ final meeting in Mesa, Arizona. He lost primaries in both Arizona and Michigan on February 28, and his campaign is running low on money.
Romney’s win in Michigan has reestablished him as the national front-runner, and reinforced views that his march toward the nomination is inevitable. But the race has been difficult for Romney, who stumped in Fargo on March 1. Questions about his past positions on social issues and over health care reform he championed during his term in Massachusetts have made some conservatives skeptical of his ideology, and of his chances of beating President Obama this November.
Most observers believe North Dakota is likely to produce a nail-biting result. The candidates “might be bunched closer than people think,” said Peder Rice, chairman of the 38th legislative district Republican Party, in Minot. The race is “probably too close to call with Romney and Santorum in a dead heat, but my gut tells me that Ron Paul is closer than you might think.”
Paul, whose campaign has been driven by non-traditional Republicans, libertarians and younger voters, hasn’t won a state yet. But he has performed better in caucuses than in primaries, and especially in places other candidates have overlooked.
“People are starting to finally realize the country’s in trouble. So far, all we get is rhetoric. Maybe a good showing by Paul will stir some heads,” Rice said.
The eventual Republican nominee will be formally chosen at the national convention, to be held the last week of August in Tampa, Florida. A candidate needs to secure 1,144 delegates to win; estimates after Romney’s wins in Michigan and Arizona give the front-runner somewhere between 120 and 163 delegates. Santorum has won 83 delegates, while Gingrich trails with 32 delegates and Paul brings up the rear at 19.
North Dakota won’t actually add to anyone’s delegate totals just yet. That’s because the caucus vote is a beauty contest, a straw poll that won’t require any delegates to vote a certain way in Tampa. Instead, part of the caucus process involves electing delegates to North Dakota’s state Republican convention, to be held March 30 to April 1 in Bismarck. At that convention, those precinct-level delegates will choose 28 of their own to represent the state in Tampa.
-Reid Wilson is editor in chief of the National Journal’s Hotline and a freelance writer for the Great Plains Examiner.
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